Key takeaways
- EUR/USD reached 1.1273 on the US midterm results, then had a 104-pip day on Friday's payrolls and closed at 1.1138 (−0.15%). The 52-week low at 1.1104 is 34 pips away.
- GBP/USD made a seven-week high at 1.3503 before the Bank of England's hike, then fell 121 pips on Friday to close at 1.3347 (−0.31%), below its new 1.3397 pivot.
- USD/JPY closed at 158.44 (+0.56%), 51 pips under its 20-day high. Above that sits the 160 area, where Japan intervened earlier this year.
- US CPI on Tuesday is the week's main event. There is no official annual rate this month, so the monthly figures carry the surprise. UK GDP comes on Thursday and US PPI on Friday.
A strong payrolls report closed last week, and this week the US inflation data has to confirm it. October CPI on Tuesday is the main event. Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks the same day, UK third-quarter GDP comes on Thursday and US producer prices on Friday. None of the big four central banks meets this week, so the data and the speeches set the tone for their December meetings.
All prices below are Dukascopy bid prices, with daily candles closing at 17:00 New York time, the same candles most MT4 and MT5 brokers show. Pivot levels use the classic formula from last week’s high, low and close.
Last week in brief
- RBA (Tue): hiked to 4.85% in a 6–3 vote, as expected.
- US midterms: Democrats won the House and the Senate. CNBC reported the dollar index about 0.3% lower on Wednesday as uncertainty cleared.
- Bank of England (Thu): raised Bank Rate to 4.00% in an 8–1 vote, with Catherine Mann voting for 50 basis points. The Bank said it was not on a pre-set path.
- US payrolls (Fri): 165,000 jobs against forecasts of 55,000–65,000, with unemployment at 4.1% and average earnings up 0.4% on the month. Euronext reported the dollar index up 0.77%, its biggest daily gain since June, with December Fed hike pricing back near 80%.
The week ahead: key events
Times are London time (GMT). Consensus figures are from AskTraders, Gotrade and the ForexFactory calendar; where forecasters differ, we show the range. Release times can change, so check a live calendar before trading around them.
| Day | Time | Event | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 9 | 01:30 | China CPI (Oct) | 0.8% y/y expected, from 0.9% |
| Mon 9 | 17:30 | BoE Governor Bailey speaks | Lecture on central bank independence |
| Tue 10 | 13:30 | US CPI (Oct) | Headline 0.3% m/m expected, from 0.6%; core 0.2%, from 0.3% |
| Tue 10 | London | Fed Governor Waller speaks | December hike guidance |
| Wed 11 | All day | US Veterans Day | US bond market closed, stocks open |
| Wed 11 | 09:45 | ECB President Lagarde speaks | Paris Peace Forum panel |
| Thu 12 | 07:00 | UK GDP (Q3 first estimate, Sep) | Q3 0.7% q/q expected, from 0.5%; Sep 0.0% m/m |
| Thu 12 | 13:30 | US jobless claims | 191–195k expected, from 189k |
| Fri 13 | 10:00 | Eurozone GDP (Q3, second estimate) | 0.4% q/q flash |
| Fri 13 | 13:30 | US PPI (Oct) | Headline 0.4% m/m expected, from 1.3%; core 0.3% |
No annual CPI rate this month. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is not publishing 12-month changes for October, because October 2025 prices were never collected during last year’s government shutdown. Some previews quote a year-on-year forecast anyway, and they disagree; we leave it out. The monthly figures are the ones that count this time.
What markets expect. Policy rates after the latest decisions: the Fed at 3.75–4.00%, the ECB’s deposit rate at 2.50%, the Bank of England at 4.00% and the Bank of Japan at 1.25%. Going into the week, futures priced roughly a 76–80% chance of a Fed hike on 9 December. A BoE hike in December was priced at a little over 50%, and an ECB hike at 80–90%. For the BoJ, 83% of economists in a Bloomberg survey expected the next hike in December.
EUR/USD
Show the data
| 2026-09-28 | O 1.13811 · H 1.13912 · L 1.13531 · C 1.13703 |
| 2026-09-29 | O 1.13702 · H 1.13740 · L 1.13118 · C 1.13414 |
| 2026-09-30 | O 1.13411 · H 1.13803 · L 1.13222 · C 1.13290 |
| 2026-10-01 | O 1.13289 · H 1.13366 · L 1.12149 · C 1.12426 |
| 2026-10-02 | O 1.12353 · H 1.12853 · L 1.12207 · C 1.12516 |
| 2026-10-05 | O 1.12583 · H 1.12610 · L 1.11609 · C 1.12221 |
| 2026-10-06 | O 1.12209 · H 1.12767 · L 1.12028 · C 1.12584 |
| 2026-10-07 | O 1.12584 · H 1.12628 · L 1.11647 · C 1.11959 |
| 2026-10-08 | O 1.11948 · H 1.12268 · L 1.11718 · C 1.12095 |
| 2026-10-09 | O 1.12096 · H 1.12427 · L 1.11874 · C 1.11998 |
| 2026-10-12 | O 1.11858 · H 1.12171 · L 1.11524 · C 1.11544 |
| 2026-10-13 | O 1.11545 · H 1.12046 · L 1.11511 · C 1.11983 |
| 2026-10-14 | O 1.11983 · H 1.12114 · L 1.11128 · C 1.11556 |
| 2026-10-15 | O 1.11555 · H 1.12408 · L 1.11492 · C 1.12187 |
| 2026-10-16 | O 1.12187 · H 1.12694 · L 1.12080 · C 1.12381 |
| 2026-10-19 | O 1.12038 · H 1.12346 · L 1.11807 · C 1.12116 |
| 2026-10-20 | O 1.12114 · H 1.12607 · L 1.12045 · C 1.12369 |
| 2026-10-21 | O 1.12369 · H 1.12407 · L 1.12138 · C 1.12311 |
| 2026-10-22 | O 1.12306 · H 1.12559 · L 1.11884 · C 1.12148 |
| 2026-10-23 | O 1.12144 · H 1.12264 · L 1.11844 · C 1.12013 |
| 2026-10-26 | O 1.12202 · H 1.12265 · L 1.11730 · C 1.11732 |
| 2026-10-27 | O 1.11729 · H 1.11768 · L 1.11221 · C 1.11245 |
| 2026-10-28 | O 1.11245 · H 1.11694 · L 1.11129 · C 1.11526 |
| 2026-10-29 | O 1.11520 · H 1.11855 · L 1.11042 · C 1.11792 |
| 2026-10-30 | O 1.11792 · H 1.12148 · L 1.11362 · C 1.11550 |
| 2026-11-02 | O 1.11569 · H 1.12369 · L 1.11472 · C 1.11862 |
| 2026-11-03 | O 1.11863 · H 1.12067 · L 1.11749 · C 1.11913 |
| 2026-11-04 | O 1.11896 · H 1.12729 · L 1.11844 · C 1.12255 |
| 2026-11-05 | O 1.12256 · H 1.12680 · L 1.12029 · C 1.12184 |
| 2026-11-06 | O 1.12180 · H 1.12345 · L 1.11309 · C 1.11383 |
| Level | |
|---|---|
| Last week | Open 1.11569 · High 1.12729 · Low 1.11309 · Close 1.11383 (−0.15%) |
| Weekly range | 142 pips (26-week average: 121) |
| Pivots | R2 1.13227 · R1 1.12305 · P 1.11807 · S1 1.10885 · S2 1.10387 |
| 20-day range | 1.11042 – 1.12729 |
| 52-week range | 1.11042 – 1.20822 |
| Average daily range, 20 days | 66 pips |
What happened. EUR/USD closed above the 1.1162 pivot on Monday, which set the bull case going. Tuesday was a 32-pip day while the US voted, then Wednesday’s midterm results lifted it to 1.12729, beyond R1. Thursday’s Bank of England day held most of that. Friday’s payrolls beat then produced a 104-pip day and a close at 1.11383, below the pivot and below the week’s open.
Bull scenario. Back above the 1.1181 pivot, R1 at 1.1231 comes first, then last week’s 1.1273 high. A soft CPI print is the most likely route there, since it would trim the odds of a December Fed hike.
Bear scenario. The 52-week low at 1.1104 is only 34 pips below Friday’s close. A daily close beneath it would be the first close at a new yearly low in this move, and S1 at 1.1089 and S2 at 1.1039 sit below.
What decides it. US CPI at 13:30 on Tuesday, and what Waller says around it. Lagarde’s appearance on Wednesday is the euro-side risk, with a December ECB hike already mostly priced. A 66-pip average day and a 52-week low this close make it a week to use stops that sit beyond the level rather than on it.
GBP/USD
Show the data
| 2026-09-28 | O 1.32315 · H 1.32800 · L 1.32223 · C 1.32541 |
| 2026-09-29 | O 1.32539 · H 1.32576 · L 1.32020 · C 1.32308 |
| 2026-09-30 | O 1.32299 · H 1.33109 · L 1.32224 · C 1.32634 |
| 2026-10-01 | O 1.32603 · H 1.32725 · L 1.31805 · C 1.31912 |
| 2026-10-02 | O 1.31916 · H 1.32558 · L 1.31812 · C 1.32392 |
| 2026-10-05 | O 1.32355 · H 1.32497 · L 1.31900 · C 1.32214 |
| 2026-10-06 | O 1.32210 · H 1.32854 · L 1.32011 · C 1.32738 |
| 2026-10-07 | O 1.32738 · H 1.32758 · L 1.31934 · C 1.32128 |
| 2026-10-08 | O 1.32125 · H 1.32485 · L 1.31843 · C 1.32274 |
| 2026-10-09 | O 1.32273 · H 1.32499 · L 1.32055 · C 1.32317 |
| 2026-10-12 | O 1.32251 · H 1.32613 · L 1.32014 · C 1.32072 |
| 2026-10-13 | O 1.32073 · H 1.32590 · L 1.32024 · C 1.32544 |
| 2026-10-14 | O 1.32544 · H 1.32753 · L 1.31366 · C 1.31919 |
| 2026-10-15 | O 1.31918 · H 1.32780 · L 1.31835 · C 1.32742 |
| 2026-10-16 | O 1.32733 · H 1.33714 · L 1.32616 · C 1.33276 |
| 2026-10-19 | O 1.33070 · H 1.33418 · L 1.32986 · C 1.33039 |
| 2026-10-20 | O 1.33034 · H 1.34092 · L 1.32967 · C 1.33786 |
| 2026-10-21 | O 1.33786 · H 1.34030 · L 1.33641 · C 1.33931 |
| 2026-10-22 | O 1.33911 · H 1.34189 · L 1.33547 · C 1.33991 |
| 2026-10-23 | O 1.33988 · H 1.34074 · L 1.33607 · C 1.33657 |
| 2026-10-26 | O 1.33644 · H 1.33873 · L 1.33268 · C 1.33415 |
| 2026-10-27 | O 1.33404 · H 1.33488 · L 1.33027 · C 1.33055 |
| 2026-10-28 | O 1.33034 · H 1.33385 · L 1.32723 · C 1.33254 |
| 2026-10-29 | O 1.33249 · H 1.33842 · L 1.32957 · C 1.33749 |
| 2026-10-30 | O 1.33743 · H 1.34336 · L 1.33714 · C 1.33879 |
| 2026-11-02 | O 1.33862 · H 1.34479 · L 1.33789 · C 1.34046 |
| 2026-11-03 | O 1.34046 · H 1.34323 · L 1.33961 · C 1.34137 |
| 2026-11-04 | O 1.34136 · H 1.35029 · L 1.34037 · C 1.34704 |
| 2026-11-05 | O 1.34699 · H 1.35007 · L 1.34455 · C 1.34481 |
| 2026-11-06 | O 1.34464 · H 1.34633 · L 1.33422 · C 1.33468 |
| Level | |
|---|---|
| Last week | Open 1.33862 · High 1.35029 · Low 1.33422 · Close 1.33468 (−0.31%) |
| Weekly range | 161 pips (26-week average: 162) |
| Pivots | R2 1.35580 · R1 1.34524 · P 1.33973 · S1 1.32917 · S2 1.32366 |
| 20-day range | 1.31366 – 1.35029 |
| 52-week range | 1.30377 – 1.38690 |
| Average daily range, 20 days | 73 pips |
What happened. Sterling broke R1 on Wednesday and reached 1.35029, a seven-week high, the day before the Bank of England met. The hike to 4.00% came as expected, and the pair finished Thursday at 1.34481 after a 55-pip day. Friday’s payrolls took 121 pips off the range, and the week closed at 1.33468, near its low.
Bull scenario. A daily close back above the 1.3397 pivot puts R1 at 1.3452 in view, then the 1.3503 high. A strong GDP number on Thursday would support the case for another BoE hike.
Bear scenario. Below Friday’s 1.3342 low, S1 at 1.3292 is the first support and S2 at 1.3237 the second. The 20-day low at 1.3137 is a long way below, but a hot CPI could cover that ground over the week.
What decides it. Tuesday’s US CPI, then UK GDP at 07:00 on Thursday, before London opens. GDP data usually moves sterling less than CPI or jobs data. With a 73-pip average day, the US release is the one to plan for.
USD/JPY
Show the data
| 2026-09-28 | O 157.216 · H 157.854 · L 156.506 · C 157.369 |
| 2026-09-29 | O 157.364 · H 157.714 · L 156.979 · C 157.277 |
| 2026-09-30 | O 157.277 · H 157.538 · L 156.377 · C 157.405 |
| 2026-10-01 | O 157.389 · H 158.454 · L 157.226 · C 158.080 |
| 2026-10-02 | O 158.080 · H 158.218 · L 156.944 · C 157.829 |
| 2026-10-05 | O 157.499 · H 158.297 · L 157.437 · C 157.893 |
| 2026-10-06 | O 157.893 · H 158.246 · L 157.769 · C 158.067 |
| 2026-10-07 | O 158.069 · H 158.509 · L 157.852 · C 158.060 |
| 2026-10-08 | O 158.056 · H 158.366 · L 157.518 · C 157.867 |
| 2026-10-09 | O 157.863 · H 158.430 · L 157.745 · C 158.275 |
| 2026-10-12 | O 158.082 · H 158.751 · L 158.066 · C 158.584 |
| 2026-10-13 | O 158.593 · H 158.655 · L 157.832 · C 158.318 |
| 2026-10-14 | O 158.319 · H 158.948 · L 158.046 · C 158.313 |
| 2026-10-15 | O 158.313 · H 158.334 · L 157.548 · C 157.981 |
| 2026-10-16 | O 157.981 · H 158.338 · L 157.693 · C 158.021 |
| 2026-10-19 | O 157.914 · H 158.551 · L 157.701 · C 158.486 |
| 2026-10-20 | O 158.487 · H 158.601 · L 157.826 · C 158.160 |
| 2026-10-21 | O 158.168 · H 158.389 · L 157.837 · C 158.134 |
| 2026-10-22 | O 158.133 · H 158.251 · L 156.687 · C 156.763 |
| 2026-10-23 | O 156.758 · H 157.160 · L 156.074 · C 156.827 |
| 2026-10-26 | O 157.002 · H 157.641 · L 156.650 · C 157.493 |
| 2026-10-27 | O 157.493 · H 157.976 · L 157.421 · C 157.938 |
| 2026-10-28 | O 157.936 · H 158.345 · L 157.651 · C 157.826 |
| 2026-10-29 | O 157.828 · H 158.126 · L 157.604 · C 157.697 |
| 2026-10-30 | O 157.701 · H 157.895 · L 156.963 · C 157.550 |
| 2026-11-02 | O 157.439 · H 157.999 · L 157.439 · C 157.935 |
| 2026-11-03 | O 157.936 · H 158.766 · L 157.752 · C 158.665 |
| 2026-11-04 | O 158.665 · H 158.741 · L 157.367 · C 158.425 |
| 2026-11-05 | O 158.424 · H 158.504 · L 157.537 · C 157.668 |
| 2026-11-06 | O 157.670 · H 158.581 · L 157.253 · C 158.438 |
| Level | |
|---|---|
| Last week | Open 157.439 · High 158.766 · Low 157.253 · Close 158.438 (+0.56%) |
| Weekly range | 151 pips (26-week average: 226) |
| Pivots | R2 159.665 · R1 159.052 · P 158.152 · S1 157.539 · S2 156.639 |
| 20-day range | 156.074 – 158.948 |
| 52-week range | 152.094 – 163.989 |
| Average daily range, 20 days | 88 pips |
What happened. USD/JPY closed every day of last week above its 157.52 pivot. Tuesday, Japan’s holiday, reached 158.766, above R1. Wednesday’s midterm results swung it through a 137-pip range, and payrolls on Friday produced a 133-pip day that closed at 158.438, near the top of the week.
Bull scenario. The 20-day high at 158.95 and R1 at 159.05 sit together. Above them, R2 is at 159.67, and then there’s 160, the area where Japan intervened to support the yen this year, most recently at the end of July. The closer the pair gets to 160, the more any comment from Japan’s Ministry of Finance matters.
Bear scenario. A close below the 158.15 pivot and then S1 at 157.54 would undo last week’s gains. S2 at 156.64 sits just above the 20-day low at 156.07.
What decides it. US yields, and so CPI and Waller on Tuesday. Wednesday’s US bond-market holiday may thin out the afternoon. Near 160 the risk becomes two-sided: a strong dollar pushes the pair up, but an intervention can take several hundred pips off it within hours. That’s why stops above 159.5 need sizing for that move, not for an average day.
Update: the week so far (to Thursday 12 November)
Added Thursday evening, London time. Thursday’s figures are intraday, not a close.
- US CPI (Tue) rose 0.4% on the month against 0.3% expected, and core CPI 0.3% against 0.2%. Waller, speaking in London, said a 50-basis-point hike “should be considered” in December. CNBC reported a quarter-point December hike fully priced after the data.
- The dollar kept going. TipRanks reported the dollar index at a 19-month high on Thursday, citing bets on Fed hikes after the hot inflation data and hawkish comments that widened rate gaps.
- UK GDP (Thu) grew 0.7% in the third quarter, as expected, and September beat at +0.2%. Sterling barely reacted.
- Japan pushed back. Vice Finance Minister Atsushi Mimura said early on Thursday that the yen’s moves over the past few days had been too fast.
What our levels did. EUR/USD closed Monday above its pivot and reached 1.12513 on Tuesday, beyond R1, then fell to close at 1.11628 on CPI day. On Wednesday it closed at 1.10890, the first daily close below the old 1.1104 low, after trading through S1. On Thursday it has reached 1.10457, 7 pips from S2. GBP/USD went through R1 to 1.34591 on Tuesday, closed below S1 on Wednesday, and has fallen to 1.3221 on Thursday, below S2 at 1.3237. USD/JPY held above S1 on Monday, broke R2 on Wednesday at 159.938, and touched 160.045 on Thursday.
Next week’s edition will cover the levels for 16–20 November once Friday’s candles have closed.
How to use this outlook
These are the levels and events we’re watching, not trade recommendations. Pivots and prior highs and lows are reference points where many traders place orders, which is why price often reacts there. They are not guarantees. Size every position from its stop, expect spreads to widen around each release, and remember that a stop can fill well past its price when markets gap.
Live trade ideas with entry, stop loss and take profit go out on our free Telegram channel. The previous edition is here. All editions are archived in the Weekly outlook section.
Frequently asked questions
What are the weekly pivot points for 9–13 November 2026?
Using the classic formula on the week to 6 November: EUR/USD pivot 1.11807 (R1 1.12305, S1 1.10885); GBP/USD pivot 1.33973 (R1 1.34524, S1 1.32917); USD/JPY pivot 158.152 (R1 159.052, S1 157.539). Prices are Dukascopy bid, New York close.
Why is there no annual US CPI figure for October 2026?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not publish 12-month changes for October 2026, because October 2025 prices were never collected during the 2025 government shutdown. The monthly changes were published as normal.
What time is US CPI released in London?
13:30 London time. The UK is on GMT and the US on Eastern Standard Time, so the 8:30 New York release lands at 13:30 in London.
Sources
- AskTraders: week ahead, US inflation and UK GDP
- Gotrade: weekly economic outlook, 9 November 2026
- BLS: notice on 12-month changes for October 2026
- Euronext: dollar jumps after strong US payrolls report
- CNBC: dollar dips with US midterm results in focus, 4 November 2026
- Trading Economics: Bank of England raises Bank Rate to 4%
- SIFMA: Veterans Day 2026 bond market close recommendation
- BLS: consumer price index, October 2026
- CNBC: Fed governor Waller sees a December hike as likely
- ONS: GDP first quarterly estimate, July to September 2026
- TipRanks: US dollar climbs to 19-month high as rate-hike bets push down the euro and yen
- InvestingLive: Japan's Mimura warns yen moves are too rapid
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