Author
Kestrel
Lead analyst, ForexSignals.io
Kestrel is the trading alias of ForexSignals.io’s lead analyst, who has traded currencies since 2014. Twelve years in, the lessons that mattered most were the unglamorous ones: costs, position size and honest testing, long before entries.
Kestrel writes the Weekly Outlook and the blog’s research. The focus is the London and New York sessions, the majors and gold, and testing ideas on data before anyone risks money on them.
Kestrel writes under an alias so the work is judged on the evidence in each article rather than on a personal brand. Every number on this blog comes from price data we can show you, with the method stated.
- Session behaviour
- Backtesting
- Risk and position sizing
- GBP, EUR and JPY majors
Articles by Kestrel
EUR/USD vs GBP/USD: which should beginners trade?
A side-by-side comparison on a year of data: daily range, session hours, spreads, correlation and biggest days. GBP/USD moves 25% more pips a day, but only 6% more in percentage terms.
Weekly outlookForex weekly outlook, 19–23 October 2026: EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY
EUR/USD set a 52-week low and recovered 157 pips; GBP/USD ranged 235 pips into a heavy UK data week; USD/JPY moved little more than half its usual weekly range. Levels, calendar and scenarios for the week ahead.
StrategyHow to backtest a forex strategy properly (and the mistakes that fake profits)
We took one strategy and backtested it five ways. The results ranged from +167R to −148R. The data, bar size, fills and costs that decide whether a backtest tells the truth.
BeginnersHow to build a forex trading plan you will actually follow
A one-page trading plan with eight sections: markets, hours, setups, risk, limits, records and review. With a template, worked numbers and the mistakes that make plans fail.
ResearchScalping vs day trading: what the spread really costs on each timeframe
We measured the average candle on six pairs from 5 minutes to 1 day, and real bid-ask spreads hour by hour. On a 5-minute EUR/USD chart the spread is 39% of a typical candle. On a daily chart, 2%.
ResearchThe most volatile hours in forex: a year of data on 28 pairs
We measured every hourly candle on 28 major and cross pairs for a year. The busiest hour of the day is 15:00–16:00 London time, the quietest come just before dawn, and the yen and Aussie dollar keep trading through the Asian night.
BeginnersTrading forex with a $100 account: what's realistic?
With $100 the smallest standard trade can already risk 2% on a normal stop. The position-size maths for 28 pairs, the margin trap, and what a small account is actually good for.
StrategyWe tested the London breakout strategy on 10 years of data
The classic London breakout, run on 2,691 GBP/USD trading days, plus EUR/USD and USD/JPY, from 2016 to 2026, with spreads charged and every rule stated. Here is what it actually returns.
ResearchWe tracked 39 Telegram forex signal channels for a year. Here's what 10,285 signals really did
Every signal from 39 Telegram channels, checked against real prices for 12 months. Channels claimed a 95% win rate; prices showed 63%. 17 of 27 lost money after costs, and 99% of stop-outs were never mentioned.
BrokersWhat happens to your money when a forex broker goes bust?
Alpari UK, FXCM and MF Global: what really happened to clients' money, what compensation schemes cover and what they don't, and the checks to run before you deposit.
RiskWhy most forex traders lose money: the maths, with real data
Regulators say 74–89% of retail CFD accounts lose money. We placed 16,574 random EUR/USD trades to show the main reason: what the market charges you to trade, before skill even enters it.
Official Telegram channel
Trade ideas, with the reasoning attached.
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