Key takeaways
- USD/JPY broke out of its tight range on Thursday and fell 253 pips on the week to close at 156.83 (−0.76%). The weekly pivot is now 157.17.
- GBP/USD made a new 20-day high at 1.3419 after UK CPI rose to 3.5%, then closed at 1.3366 (+0.29%), just above its 1.3360 pivot.
- EUR/USD traded an inside week, with an 80-pip range against a 26-week average of 123. Last week's 1.1113–1.1269 range is the box to watch.
- The Fed (Wed), ECB (Thu) and BoJ (Fri) are all expected to hold. The Bank of Canada and RBNZ are expected to hike, and the UK Budget lands on Wednesday.
This is the busiest week for central banks this year. The Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada and Reserve Bank of New Zealand all decide on Wednesday, the European Central Bank on Thursday and the Bank of Japan early on Friday. The UK Budget comes on Wednesday too, and the US publishes third-quarter GDP and September PCE inflation on Thursday.
Last week set up three different pictures going into it. USD/JPY’s tight range broke lower, sterling made a new 20-day high on hot UK inflation, and EUR/USD went quiet.
All prices below are Dukascopy bid prices, with daily candles closing at 17:00 New York time, the same candles most MT4 and MT5 brokers show. Pivot levels use the classic formula from last week’s high, low and close.
The week ahead: key events
Times are London time (GMT). UK clocks went back on 25 October but US clocks don’t change until 1 November, so this week US data comes out at 12:30 London, an hour earlier than usual. Consensus figures are from InvestingLive, Newsquawk and the ForexFactory calendar; where forecasters differ, we show the range. Release times can change, so check a live calendar before trading around them.
| Day | Time | Event | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 28 | 00:30 | Australia CPI (Sep) | 4.2% y/y expected, from 4.0% |
| Wed 28 | 01:00 | RBNZ decision | Hike to 3.00% from 2.75% expected |
| Wed 28 | 12:30 | UK Budget | Fiscal headroom, gilt issuance |
| Wed 28 | 13:45 | Bank of Canada decision | Hike to 2.50% from 2.25% expected |
| Wed 28 | 18:00 | Fed decision (press conference 18:30) | Hold at 3.75–4.00% expected |
| Thu 29 | 12:30 | US GDP (Q3, advance) and PCE (Sep) | GDP 3.0–3.2% expected, from 2.2%; core PCE 0.3% m/m, from 0.2% |
| Thu 29 | 13:15 | ECB decision (press conference 13:45) | Hold expected, deposit rate 2.50% |
| Thu 29 | 23:30 | Tokyo CPI (Oct) | Core 2.6–2.7% y/y expected, from 2.7% |
| Fri 30 | Early | BoJ decision (no fixed time; press conference about 05:30) | Hold at 1.25% expected |
| Fri 30 | 09:00–10:00 | German and eurozone GDP (Q3, flash) | Eurozone 0.2% q/q expected |
| Fri 30 | 13:00 | German flash CPI (Oct) | 0.1% m/m expected, from 0.6% |
| Fri 30 | 12:30 | US employment cost index (Q3), Canada GDP (Aug) | ECI 0.8% expected, from 0.9% |
What markets expect. Newsquawk reports that 94 of 100 economists in a Reuters poll expect the Fed to hold, with futures pricing about a 10% chance of a hike after September’s 25-basis-point rise. There are no new projections at this meeting, so Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference and any hawkish dissent matter more than the decision itself. A December hike is widely expected. The ECB and BoJ are also expected to hold, with December the live meeting for both: money markets price roughly a 75–80% chance of a BoJ hike then.
The UK Budget. Newsquawk expects fiscal headroom to fall to around £15 billion, from £23.6 billion, and a tax rise for banks worth £2–5 billion. Gilt issuance plans are the part currency traders watch most, because a surprise in borrowing moves gilt yields and sterling with them.
Looking further ahead: the Reserve Bank of Australia decides on 3 November, where markets were pricing a hike as more likely than not before this week’s Australian CPI, and the Bank of England on 5 November, where a rise from 3.75% to 4% is widely expected after September’s inflation.
EUR/USD
Show the data
| 2026-09-14 | O 1.15944 · H 1.15972 · L 1.15230 · C 1.15481 |
| 2026-09-15 | O 1.15478 · H 1.15519 · L 1.15270 · C 1.15427 |
| 2026-09-16 | O 1.15423 · H 1.15565 · L 1.14607 · C 1.14647 |
| 2026-09-17 | O 1.14648 · H 1.14977 · L 1.14549 · C 1.14754 |
| 2026-09-18 | O 1.14751 · H 1.14918 · L 1.14547 · C 1.14830 |
| 2026-09-21 | O 1.14808 · H 1.14957 · L 1.14619 · C 1.14638 |
| 2026-09-22 | O 1.14638 · H 1.14781 · L 1.14293 · C 1.14478 |
| 2026-09-23 | O 1.14453 · H 1.14497 · L 1.13700 · C 1.13813 |
| 2026-09-24 | O 1.13812 · H 1.13991 · L 1.13590 · C 1.13798 |
| 2026-09-25 | O 1.13797 · H 1.14110 · L 1.13682 · C 1.13904 |
| 2026-09-28 | O 1.13811 · H 1.13912 · L 1.13531 · C 1.13703 |
| 2026-09-29 | O 1.13702 · H 1.13740 · L 1.13118 · C 1.13414 |
| 2026-09-30 | O 1.13411 · H 1.13803 · L 1.13222 · C 1.13290 |
| 2026-10-01 | O 1.13289 · H 1.13366 · L 1.12149 · C 1.12426 |
| 2026-10-02 | O 1.12353 · H 1.12853 · L 1.12207 · C 1.12516 |
| 2026-10-05 | O 1.12583 · H 1.12610 · L 1.11609 · C 1.12221 |
| 2026-10-06 | O 1.12209 · H 1.12767 · L 1.12028 · C 1.12584 |
| 2026-10-07 | O 1.12584 · H 1.12628 · L 1.11647 · C 1.11959 |
| 2026-10-08 | O 1.11948 · H 1.12268 · L 1.11718 · C 1.12095 |
| 2026-10-09 | O 1.12096 · H 1.12427 · L 1.11874 · C 1.11998 |
| 2026-10-12 | O 1.11858 · H 1.12171 · L 1.11524 · C 1.11544 |
| 2026-10-13 | O 1.11545 · H 1.12046 · L 1.11511 · C 1.11983 |
| 2026-10-14 | O 1.11983 · H 1.12114 · L 1.11128 · C 1.11556 |
| 2026-10-15 | O 1.11555 · H 1.12408 · L 1.11492 · C 1.12187 |
| 2026-10-16 | O 1.12187 · H 1.12694 · L 1.12080 · C 1.12381 |
| 2026-10-19 | O 1.12038 · H 1.12346 · L 1.11807 · C 1.12116 |
| 2026-10-20 | O 1.12114 · H 1.12607 · L 1.12045 · C 1.12369 |
| 2026-10-21 | O 1.12369 · H 1.12407 · L 1.12138 · C 1.12311 |
| 2026-10-22 | O 1.12306 · H 1.12559 · L 1.11884 · C 1.12148 |
| 2026-10-23 | O 1.12144 · H 1.12264 · L 1.11844 · C 1.12013 |
| Level | |
|---|---|
| Last week | Open 1.12038 · High 1.12607 · Low 1.11807 · Close 1.12013 (−0.33%) |
| Weekly range | 80 pips (26-week average: 123) |
| Pivots | R2 1.12942 · R1 1.12478 · P 1.12142 · S1 1.11678 · S2 1.11342 |
| 20-day range | 1.11128 – 1.13912 |
| 52-week range | 1.11128 – 1.20822 |
| Average daily range, 20 days | 67 pips |
What happened. Last week’s outlook said a close back below the 1.1207 pivot would turn the rebound into a pause, and that is what happened. EUR/USD made its high of 1.12607 on Tuesday, short of the previous week’s 1.12694, and Wednesday was a 27-pip day, the narrowest of the month. Thursday’s risk-off session pushed it back to 1.11884 and Friday closed at 1.12013. The whole week sat inside the previous week’s range, and the range itself was 80 pips, about two-thirds of an average week.
Bull scenario. Back above the 1.1214 pivot, R1 at 1.1248 is the first test, then the cluster of Tuesday’s 1.1261 high and the previous week’s 1.1269 high. A daily close above 1.1269 breaks the inside week to the upside and opens R2 at 1.1294.
Bear scenario. Below last week’s 1.1181 low, S1 at 1.1168 comes first. Under it, S2 at 1.1134 sits just above the 52-week low at 1.1113. A close below 1.1113 would mean new yearly lows.
What decides it. Inside weeks before big events tend to resolve once the events arrive. The Fed on Wednesday evening and the ECB on Thursday afternoon are 19 hours apart, so EUR/USD may get two jolts in quick succession. Thursday is the heaviest day: US GDP and PCE at 12:30, then the ECB at 13:15. With an average day of 67 pips and spreads that widen around 12:30 and 13:15, give stops more room than usual or wait for the dust to settle.
GBP/USD
Show the data
| 2026-09-14 | O 1.35183 · H 1.35282 · L 1.34638 · C 1.34981 |
| 2026-09-15 | O 1.34980 · H 1.35046 · L 1.34639 · C 1.34769 |
| 2026-09-16 | O 1.34764 · H 1.34973 · L 1.33721 · C 1.33797 |
| 2026-09-17 | O 1.33741 · H 1.34059 · L 1.33361 · C 1.33583 |
| 2026-09-18 | O 1.33583 · H 1.33978 · L 1.33353 · C 1.33919 |
| 2026-09-21 | O 1.33834 · H 1.34000 · L 1.33647 · C 1.33658 |
| 2026-09-22 | O 1.33656 · H 1.33868 · L 1.33213 · C 1.33428 |
| 2026-09-23 | O 1.33422 · H 1.33466 · L 1.32234 · C 1.32381 |
| 2026-09-24 | O 1.32383 · H 1.32557 · L 1.32041 · C 1.32176 |
| 2026-09-25 | O 1.32177 · H 1.32635 · L 1.32088 · C 1.32421 |
| 2026-09-28 | O 1.32315 · H 1.32800 · L 1.32223 · C 1.32541 |
| 2026-09-29 | O 1.32539 · H 1.32576 · L 1.32020 · C 1.32308 |
| 2026-09-30 | O 1.32299 · H 1.33109 · L 1.32224 · C 1.32634 |
| 2026-10-01 | O 1.32603 · H 1.32725 · L 1.31805 · C 1.31912 |
| 2026-10-02 | O 1.31916 · H 1.32558 · L 1.31812 · C 1.32392 |
| 2026-10-05 | O 1.32355 · H 1.32497 · L 1.31900 · C 1.32214 |
| 2026-10-06 | O 1.32210 · H 1.32854 · L 1.32011 · C 1.32738 |
| 2026-10-07 | O 1.32738 · H 1.32758 · L 1.31934 · C 1.32128 |
| 2026-10-08 | O 1.32125 · H 1.32485 · L 1.31843 · C 1.32274 |
| 2026-10-09 | O 1.32273 · H 1.32499 · L 1.32055 · C 1.32317 |
| 2026-10-12 | O 1.32251 · H 1.32613 · L 1.32014 · C 1.32072 |
| 2026-10-13 | O 1.32073 · H 1.32590 · L 1.32024 · C 1.32544 |
| 2026-10-14 | O 1.32544 · H 1.32753 · L 1.31366 · C 1.31919 |
| 2026-10-15 | O 1.31918 · H 1.32780 · L 1.31835 · C 1.32742 |
| 2026-10-16 | O 1.32733 · H 1.33714 · L 1.32616 · C 1.33276 |
| 2026-10-19 | O 1.33070 · H 1.33418 · L 1.32986 · C 1.33039 |
| 2026-10-20 | O 1.33034 · H 1.34092 · L 1.32967 · C 1.33786 |
| 2026-10-21 | O 1.33786 · H 1.34030 · L 1.33641 · C 1.33931 |
| 2026-10-22 | O 1.33911 · H 1.34189 · L 1.33547 · C 1.33991 |
| 2026-10-23 | O 1.33988 · H 1.34074 · L 1.33607 · C 1.33657 |
| Level | |
|---|---|
| Last week | Open 1.33070 · High 1.34189 · Low 1.32967 · Close 1.33657 (+0.29%) |
| Weekly range | 122 pips (26-week average: 163) |
| Pivots | R2 1.34826 · R1 1.34242 · P 1.33604 · S1 1.33020 · S2 1.32382 |
| 20-day range | 1.31366 – 1.34189 |
| 52-week range | 1.30098 – 1.38690 |
| Average daily range, 20 days | 73 pips |
What happened. Sterling held above the previous week’s 1.3279 pivot all week, so the bull case stayed in play. Tuesday, labour-market day, was the big move: 112 pips, up to 1.34092. On Wednesday UK CPI came in at 3.5%, above the 3.4% consensus, with core up to 2.8%. Sterling’s range that day was only 39 pips, but it closed higher. Thursday’s 1.34189 was a new 20-day high, two pips short of the previous week’s R1, and the pair then gave some back to close at 1.33657.
Bull scenario. Holding above the 1.3360 pivot keeps buyers in charge. Thursday’s 1.3419 high and R1 at 1.3424 make a double ceiling; a daily close above it opens R2 at 1.3483. A Budget that reassures the gilt market, combined with a Bank of England hike now widely expected on 5 November, is the bullish combination.
Bear scenario. A close below 1.3360 brings S1 at 1.3302 into play, with last week’s low at 1.3297 just beneath it. Losing that zone would undo the breakout and point to S2 at 1.3238.
What decides it. Wednesday is sterling’s day twice: the Budget at 12:30, then the Fed at 18:00. Budgets can move the pound sharply in the hour after the speech as gilt traders react, and it’s often wiser to let the first move play out than to trade into it. A 73-pip average day means a stop under 25 pips is inside normal noise.
USD/JPY
Show the data
| 2026-09-14 | O 153.315 · H 154.999 · L 153.308 · C 154.337 |
| 2026-09-15 | O 154.301 · H 155.237 · L 154.208 · C 155.070 |
| 2026-09-16 | O 155.060 · H 156.414 · L 154.837 · C 156.243 |
| 2026-09-17 | O 156.242 · H 156.314 · L 155.332 · C 155.954 |
| 2026-09-18 | O 155.954 · H 158.052 · L 155.870 · C 156.868 |
| 2026-09-21 | O 156.766 · H 157.529 · L 156.575 · C 157.328 |
| 2026-09-22 | O 157.330 · H 157.774 · L 156.822 · C 157.369 |
| 2026-09-23 | O 157.369 · H 158.400 · L 157.308 · C 158.301 |
| 2026-09-24 | O 158.300 · H 159.034 · L 157.796 · C 158.848 |
| 2026-09-25 | O 158.848 · H 158.908 · L 156.938 · C 157.227 |
| 2026-09-28 | O 157.216 · H 157.854 · L 156.506 · C 157.369 |
| 2026-09-29 | O 157.364 · H 157.714 · L 156.979 · C 157.277 |
| 2026-09-30 | O 157.277 · H 157.538 · L 156.377 · C 157.405 |
| 2026-10-01 | O 157.389 · H 158.454 · L 157.226 · C 158.080 |
| 2026-10-02 | O 158.080 · H 158.218 · L 156.944 · C 157.829 |
| 2026-10-05 | O 157.499 · H 158.297 · L 157.437 · C 157.893 |
| 2026-10-06 | O 157.893 · H 158.246 · L 157.769 · C 158.067 |
| 2026-10-07 | O 158.069 · H 158.509 · L 157.852 · C 158.060 |
| 2026-10-08 | O 158.056 · H 158.366 · L 157.518 · C 157.867 |
| 2026-10-09 | O 157.863 · H 158.430 · L 157.745 · C 158.275 |
| 2026-10-12 | O 158.082 · H 158.751 · L 158.066 · C 158.584 |
| 2026-10-13 | O 158.593 · H 158.655 · L 157.832 · C 158.318 |
| 2026-10-14 | O 158.319 · H 158.948 · L 158.046 · C 158.313 |
| 2026-10-15 | O 158.313 · H 158.334 · L 157.548 · C 157.981 |
| 2026-10-16 | O 157.981 · H 158.338 · L 157.693 · C 158.021 |
| 2026-10-19 | O 157.914 · H 158.551 · L 157.701 · C 158.486 |
| 2026-10-20 | O 158.487 · H 158.601 · L 157.826 · C 158.160 |
| 2026-10-21 | O 158.168 · H 158.389 · L 157.837 · C 158.134 |
| 2026-10-22 | O 158.133 · H 158.251 · L 156.687 · C 156.763 |
| 2026-10-23 | O 156.758 · H 157.160 · L 156.074 · C 156.827 |
| Level | |
|---|---|
| Last week | Open 157.914 · High 158.601 · Low 156.074 · Close 156.827 (−0.76%) |
| Weekly range | 253 pips (26-week average: 235) |
| Pivots | R2 159.694 · R1 158.261 · P 157.167 · S1 155.734 · S2 154.640 |
| 20-day range | 156.074 – 158.948 |
| 52-week range | 151.537 – 163.989 |
| Average daily range, 20 days | 90 pips |
What happened. Last week we noted that a range as tight as USD/JPY’s rarely lasts, and suggested waiting for a daily close outside 157.55–158.95. That came on Thursday. A selloff in global stocks sent investors into the yen, which Bloomberg reported outperformed every major currency that day. USD/JPY fell 156 pips to close at 156.763, below the bottom of the range. Friday extended to 156.074, the lowest in 20 trading days, after Japan’s core CPI rose to 2.1%, its first reading above the Bank of Japan’s 2% goal since December. The pair closed the week at 156.827.
Bull scenario. A recovery above the 157.17 pivot would put the breakdown in doubt. Back above the old range floor at 157.55, R1 at 158.26 is the next level.
Bear scenario. Below Friday’s 156.07 low, S1 at 155.73 is the first support, then S2 at 154.64. With a December BoJ hike already priced at around 75–80%, a hawkish press conference on Friday morning could add to the move rather than start it.
What decides it. USD/JPY has two big events about a day and a half apart: the Fed on Wednesday evening and the BoJ in the early hours of Friday, London time. The BoJ has no fixed release time, which makes stops placed overnight before it especially exposed. Last week’s breakdown is the trend until price closes back above 157.55.
How to use this outlook
These are the levels and events we’re watching, not trade recommendations. Pivots and prior highs and lows are reference points where many traders place orders, which is why price often reacts there. They are not guarantees. In a week with five rate decisions, size every position from its stop, expect spreads to widen around each announcement, and remember that a stop can fill well past its price when markets gap.
Live trade ideas with entry, stop loss and take profit go out on our free Telegram channel. Last week’s edition is here. The next Weekly Outlook publishes on Monday 2 November; all editions are archived in the Weekly outlook section.
Sources
This article is for education and information, not investment advice. Trading forex and CFDs on margin is high risk and most retail accounts lose money. Read our risk warning.