Key takeaways
- EUR/USD touched a new 52-week low of 1.1104 on Thursday but closed every day above 1.1113. It ended at 1.1155 (−0.41%), with the weekly pivot at 1.1162.
- GBP/USD dipped to 1.3272 on Budget day, then made a new 20-day high of 1.3434 on Friday and closed at 1.3388 (+0.17%), above its 1.3365 pivot.
- USD/JPY closed back above 157.55 on Tuesday, undoing the previous week's breakdown, and finished at 157.55 (+0.46%).
- The RBA (Tue) and the Bank of England (Thu) were both expected to hike by 25 basis points. US payrolls on Friday came after ISM, JOLTS and ADP data, and the US midterm elections were on Tuesday.
The week after the central-bank marathon brings two more decisions, from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England, plus the US midterm elections on Tuesday and the October jobs report on Friday. US clocks went back on 1 November, so US data returns to its usual London times: 13:30 for payrolls, 15:00 for the ISM surveys.
All prices below are Dukascopy bid prices, with daily candles closing at 17:00 New York time, the same candles most MT4 and MT5 brokers show. Pivot levels use the classic formula from last week’s high, low and close.
Last week’s central banks: what they decided
- Fed (Wed 28 Oct): held at 3.75–4.00% in a 10–2 vote. Governor Lisa Cook and the Cleveland Fed’s Beth Hammack dissented in favour of a hike. Chair Kevin Warsh said price stability had not yet been achieved and did little to push back on pricing for a December hike.
- ECB (Thu 29 Oct): held the deposit rate at 2.50%. A hike was discussed, but the Governing Council judged that a measured approach was still justified and made no commitment for December.
- BoJ (Fri 30 Oct): held at 1.25% in an 8–1 vote, with Takata dissenting in favour of a hike. Governor Ueda said the bank wanted to look at the data “a bit more”.
- The surprises came elsewhere. The RBNZ held at 2.75% when a hike was expected, in a 4–3 vote. The Bank of Canada hiked to 2.50% as expected. The UK Budget left £15 billion of headroom, in line with expectations, and gilts edged higher.
- US data was strong. Third-quarter GDP grew at 3.4% against 3.2% expected. September PCE inflation rose to 3.6% year on year and core PCE to 3.1%, both in line with forecasts.
The week ahead: key events
Times are London time (GMT). Consensus figures are from Newsquawk and CapitalStreetFX’s previews; where forecasters differ, we show the range. Release times can change, so check a live calendar before trading around them.
| Day | Time | Event | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 | 15:00 | US ISM manufacturing (Oct) | 54.5–54.7 expected, from 54.5 |
| Tue 3 | 03:30 | RBA decision | Hike to 4.85% from 4.60% expected |
| Tue 3 | All day | US midterm elections | Results overnight into Wednesday |
| Tue 3 | 15:00 | US JOLTS job openings (Sep) | 7.10–7.16 million expected |
| Wed 4 | 10:00 | Eurozone flash HICP (Oct) | 4.0% expected, from 3.8% |
| Wed 4 | 13:15 | US ADP employment (Oct) | 69–75k expected |
| Wed 4 | 15:00 | US ISM services (Oct) | 54.7–54.8 expected, from 54.9 |
| Thu 5 | 12:00 | Bank of England decision and Monetary Policy Report | Hike to 4.00% from 3.75% expected |
| Thu 5 | 12:30 | BoE press conference | Guidance on December |
| Fri 6 | 13:30 | US nonfarm payrolls (Oct) and Canada jobs | Payrolls 55–65k expected, from 29k; unemployment 4.2% |
What markets expect. Newsquawk put market pricing for an RBA hike at about 79% going into the week, after Australian September CPI rose to 4.3%. For the Bank of England, a 25-basis-point rise is the consensus, with previews expecting a 7–2 vote; the last meeting, in September, was a 6–3 hold. US payroll forecasts sit between 55,000 and 65,000, with the unemployment rate expected at 4.2%. Japan is on holiday on Tuesday (Culture Day), so Asian liquidity will be thinner that morning.
The midterms. Prediction markets cited by Newsquawk had Democrats as strong favourites to win the House and narrower favourites for the Senate. A result that removes uncertainty can move the dollar on Wednesday morning, London time, before European data.
EUR/USD
Show the data
| 2026-09-21 | O 1.14808 · H 1.14957 · L 1.14619 · C 1.14638 |
| 2026-09-22 | O 1.14638 · H 1.14781 · L 1.14293 · C 1.14478 |
| 2026-09-23 | O 1.14453 · H 1.14497 · L 1.13700 · C 1.13813 |
| 2026-09-24 | O 1.13812 · H 1.13991 · L 1.13590 · C 1.13798 |
| 2026-09-25 | O 1.13797 · H 1.14110 · L 1.13682 · C 1.13904 |
| 2026-09-28 | O 1.13811 · H 1.13912 · L 1.13531 · C 1.13703 |
| 2026-09-29 | O 1.13702 · H 1.13740 · L 1.13118 · C 1.13414 |
| 2026-09-30 | O 1.13411 · H 1.13803 · L 1.13222 · C 1.13290 |
| 2026-10-01 | O 1.13289 · H 1.13366 · L 1.12149 · C 1.12426 |
| 2026-10-02 | O 1.12353 · H 1.12853 · L 1.12207 · C 1.12516 |
| 2026-10-05 | O 1.12583 · H 1.12610 · L 1.11609 · C 1.12221 |
| 2026-10-06 | O 1.12209 · H 1.12767 · L 1.12028 · C 1.12584 |
| 2026-10-07 | O 1.12584 · H 1.12628 · L 1.11647 · C 1.11959 |
| 2026-10-08 | O 1.11948 · H 1.12268 · L 1.11718 · C 1.12095 |
| 2026-10-09 | O 1.12096 · H 1.12427 · L 1.11874 · C 1.11998 |
| 2026-10-12 | O 1.11858 · H 1.12171 · L 1.11524 · C 1.11544 |
| 2026-10-13 | O 1.11545 · H 1.12046 · L 1.11511 · C 1.11983 |
| 2026-10-14 | O 1.11983 · H 1.12114 · L 1.11128 · C 1.11556 |
| 2026-10-15 | O 1.11555 · H 1.12408 · L 1.11492 · C 1.12187 |
| 2026-10-16 | O 1.12187 · H 1.12694 · L 1.12080 · C 1.12381 |
| 2026-10-19 | O 1.12038 · H 1.12346 · L 1.11807 · C 1.12116 |
| 2026-10-20 | O 1.12114 · H 1.12607 · L 1.12045 · C 1.12369 |
| 2026-10-21 | O 1.12369 · H 1.12407 · L 1.12138 · C 1.12311 |
| 2026-10-22 | O 1.12306 · H 1.12559 · L 1.11884 · C 1.12148 |
| 2026-10-23 | O 1.12144 · H 1.12264 · L 1.11844 · C 1.12013 |
| 2026-10-26 | O 1.12202 · H 1.12265 · L 1.11730 · C 1.11732 |
| 2026-10-27 | O 1.11729 · H 1.11768 · L 1.11221 · C 1.11245 |
| 2026-10-28 | O 1.11245 · H 1.11694 · L 1.11129 · C 1.11526 |
| 2026-10-29 | O 1.11520 · H 1.11855 · L 1.11042 · C 1.11792 |
| 2026-10-30 | O 1.11792 · H 1.12148 · L 1.11362 · C 1.11550 |
| Level | |
|---|---|
| Last week | Open 1.12202 · High 1.12265 · Low 1.11042 · Close 1.11550 (−0.41%) |
| Weekly range | 122 pips (26-week average: 121) |
| Pivots | R2 1.12842 · R1 1.12196 · P 1.11619 · S1 1.10973 · S2 1.10396 |
| 20-day range | 1.11042 – 1.12767 |
| 52-week range | 1.11042 – 1.20822 |
| Average daily range, 20 days | 66 pips |
What happened. The previous outlook’s bear case started on Monday: EUR/USD fell below the 1.1181 low before any of the central banks had spoken and closed at 1.1173. Tuesday added another 49 pips of losses. On Wednesday the low was 1.11129, a fraction of a pip above the old 52-week low, and on Thursday, ECB and US GDP day, it made a new 52-week low at 1.11042. But no day closed below 1.1113. Thursday closed at 1.11792 and the week at 1.11550.
Bull scenario. A daily close above the 1.1162 pivot turns attention to R1 at 1.1220, which is also last week’s 1.1227 high. Above that, the 20-day high at 1.1277 is the line between a bounce and a change of direction.
Bear scenario. The 1.1104 low is the level that matters. A daily close below it would be the first close at a new 52-week low, and it opens S1 at 1.1097 and S2 at 1.1040.
What decides it. The euro side is light: Wednesday’s flash inflation is expected to show 4.0%, which would keep a December ECB hike in play. The dollar side is heavy, with ISM, JOLTS and ADP building up to payrolls on Friday. With a 66-pip average day, a stop inside 20 pips of the 1.1104 low is within one ordinary move.
GBP/USD
Show the data
| 2026-09-21 | O 1.33834 · H 1.34000 · L 1.33647 · C 1.33658 |
| 2026-09-22 | O 1.33656 · H 1.33868 · L 1.33213 · C 1.33428 |
| 2026-09-23 | O 1.33422 · H 1.33466 · L 1.32234 · C 1.32381 |
| 2026-09-24 | O 1.32383 · H 1.32557 · L 1.32041 · C 1.32176 |
| 2026-09-25 | O 1.32177 · H 1.32635 · L 1.32088 · C 1.32421 |
| 2026-09-28 | O 1.32315 · H 1.32800 · L 1.32223 · C 1.32541 |
| 2026-09-29 | O 1.32539 · H 1.32576 · L 1.32020 · C 1.32308 |
| 2026-09-30 | O 1.32299 · H 1.33109 · L 1.32224 · C 1.32634 |
| 2026-10-01 | O 1.32603 · H 1.32725 · L 1.31805 · C 1.31912 |
| 2026-10-02 | O 1.31916 · H 1.32558 · L 1.31812 · C 1.32392 |
| 2026-10-05 | O 1.32355 · H 1.32497 · L 1.31900 · C 1.32214 |
| 2026-10-06 | O 1.32210 · H 1.32854 · L 1.32011 · C 1.32738 |
| 2026-10-07 | O 1.32738 · H 1.32758 · L 1.31934 · C 1.32128 |
| 2026-10-08 | O 1.32125 · H 1.32485 · L 1.31843 · C 1.32274 |
| 2026-10-09 | O 1.32273 · H 1.32499 · L 1.32055 · C 1.32317 |
| 2026-10-12 | O 1.32251 · H 1.32613 · L 1.32014 · C 1.32072 |
| 2026-10-13 | O 1.32073 · H 1.32590 · L 1.32024 · C 1.32544 |
| 2026-10-14 | O 1.32544 · H 1.32753 · L 1.31366 · C 1.31919 |
| 2026-10-15 | O 1.31918 · H 1.32780 · L 1.31835 · C 1.32742 |
| 2026-10-16 | O 1.32733 · H 1.33714 · L 1.32616 · C 1.33276 |
| 2026-10-19 | O 1.33070 · H 1.33418 · L 1.32986 · C 1.33039 |
| 2026-10-20 | O 1.33034 · H 1.34092 · L 1.32967 · C 1.33786 |
| 2026-10-21 | O 1.33786 · H 1.34030 · L 1.33641 · C 1.33931 |
| 2026-10-22 | O 1.33911 · H 1.34189 · L 1.33547 · C 1.33991 |
| 2026-10-23 | O 1.33988 · H 1.34074 · L 1.33607 · C 1.33657 |
| 2026-10-26 | O 1.33644 · H 1.33873 · L 1.33268 · C 1.33415 |
| 2026-10-27 | O 1.33404 · H 1.33488 · L 1.33027 · C 1.33055 |
| 2026-10-28 | O 1.33034 · H 1.33385 · L 1.32723 · C 1.33254 |
| 2026-10-29 | O 1.33249 · H 1.33842 · L 1.32957 · C 1.33749 |
| 2026-10-30 | O 1.33743 · H 1.34336 · L 1.33714 · C 1.33879 |
| Level | |
|---|---|
| Last week | Open 1.33644 · High 1.34336 · Low 1.32723 · Close 1.33879 (+0.17%) |
| Weekly range | 161 pips (26-week average: 164) |
| Pivots | R2 1.35259 · R1 1.34569 · P 1.33646 · S1 1.32956 · S2 1.32033 |
| 20-day range | 1.31366 – 1.34336 |
| 52-week range | 1.30098 – 1.38690 |
| Average daily range, 20 days | 71 pips |
What happened. Sterling slipped through the 1.3360 pivot on Monday and fell to 1.32723 on Wednesday, Budget day, below both S1 and the previous week’s low. The bear case got its move, but no follow-through. The Budget passed without a scare, Thursday was an 89-pip day that closed 50 pips higher, and Friday made a new 20-day high at 1.34336 before closing at 1.33879.
Bull scenario. Above the 1.3365 pivot, Friday’s 1.3434 high is the first ceiling, with R1 at 1.3457 close above. A hike from the Bank of England that comes with hawkish guidance could take it there. A daily close above 1.3457 opens R2 at 1.3526.
Bear scenario. A close back below 1.3365 weakens the recovery. S1 at 1.3296 and last week’s 1.3272 low form the support zone; below them, S2 sits at 1.3203.
What decides it. Thursday at 12:00. When a hike is fully expected, the vote split and the Monetary Policy Report’s forecasts carry the surprise. A split with members voting for a bigger rise would be hawkish; more votes to hold would be dovish. Then payrolls on Friday test the dollar side. Two events in two days, with a 71-pip average day: halve size or widen stops rather than tightening them.
USD/JPY
Show the data
| 2026-09-21 | O 156.766 · H 157.529 · L 156.575 · C 157.328 |
| 2026-09-22 | O 157.330 · H 157.774 · L 156.822 · C 157.369 |
| 2026-09-23 | O 157.369 · H 158.400 · L 157.308 · C 158.301 |
| 2026-09-24 | O 158.300 · H 159.034 · L 157.796 · C 158.848 |
| 2026-09-25 | O 158.848 · H 158.908 · L 156.938 · C 157.227 |
| 2026-09-28 | O 157.216 · H 157.854 · L 156.506 · C 157.369 |
| 2026-09-29 | O 157.364 · H 157.714 · L 156.979 · C 157.277 |
| 2026-09-30 | O 157.277 · H 157.538 · L 156.377 · C 157.405 |
| 2026-10-01 | O 157.389 · H 158.454 · L 157.226 · C 158.080 |
| 2026-10-02 | O 158.080 · H 158.218 · L 156.944 · C 157.829 |
| 2026-10-05 | O 157.499 · H 158.297 · L 157.437 · C 157.893 |
| 2026-10-06 | O 157.893 · H 158.246 · L 157.769 · C 158.067 |
| 2026-10-07 | O 158.069 · H 158.509 · L 157.852 · C 158.060 |
| 2026-10-08 | O 158.056 · H 158.366 · L 157.518 · C 157.867 |
| 2026-10-09 | O 157.863 · H 158.430 · L 157.745 · C 158.275 |
| 2026-10-12 | O 158.082 · H 158.751 · L 158.066 · C 158.584 |
| 2026-10-13 | O 158.593 · H 158.655 · L 157.832 · C 158.318 |
| 2026-10-14 | O 158.319 · H 158.948 · L 158.046 · C 158.313 |
| 2026-10-15 | O 158.313 · H 158.334 · L 157.548 · C 157.981 |
| 2026-10-16 | O 157.981 · H 158.338 · L 157.693 · C 158.021 |
| 2026-10-19 | O 157.914 · H 158.551 · L 157.701 · C 158.486 |
| 2026-10-20 | O 158.487 · H 158.601 · L 157.826 · C 158.160 |
| 2026-10-21 | O 158.168 · H 158.389 · L 157.837 · C 158.134 |
| 2026-10-22 | O 158.133 · H 158.251 · L 156.687 · C 156.763 |
| 2026-10-23 | O 156.758 · H 157.160 · L 156.074 · C 156.827 |
| 2026-10-26 | O 157.002 · H 157.641 · L 156.650 · C 157.493 |
| 2026-10-27 | O 157.493 · H 157.976 · L 157.421 · C 157.938 |
| 2026-10-28 | O 157.936 · H 158.345 · L 157.651 · C 157.826 |
| 2026-10-29 | O 157.828 · H 158.126 · L 157.604 · C 157.697 |
| 2026-10-30 | O 157.701 · H 157.895 · L 156.963 · C 157.550 |
| Level | |
|---|---|
| Last week | Open 157.002 · High 158.345 · Low 156.650 · Close 157.550 (+0.46%) |
| Weekly range | 169 pips (26-week average: 239) |
| Pivots | R2 159.210 · R1 158.380 · P 157.515 · S1 156.685 · S2 155.820 |
| 20-day range | 156.074 – 158.948 |
| 52-week range | 152.094 – 163.989 |
| Average daily range, 20 days | 79 pips |
What happened. The previous outlook said the breakdown was the trend until price closed back above 157.55. Monday’s low of 156.65 held above the prior week’s 156.07, and Tuesday closed at 157.938, back above that line. The pair peaked at 158.345 on Wednesday, the Fed’s day, and Friday, BoJ day, was a 93-pip session that finished at 157.55, right on the new pivot.
Bull scenario. Above 157.52, R1 at 158.38 and last week’s 158.35 high form one ceiling. A close above it points to the 20-day high at 158.95 and R2 at 159.21.
Bear scenario. Below S1 at 156.69, the 156.07 low from 23 October is the test. Breaking that would revive the breakdown and open S2 at 155.82.
What decides it. US yields, through the US data and payrolls on Friday. Tokyo is shut on Tuesday, and Governor Ueda speaks on Friday afternoon, London time. Last week’s range was 169 pips against a 239-pip norm, so a payrolls surprise has room to move the pair.
How the week played out
Added 12 November. These are the results of the events above, and what our levels did with them.
- RBA (Tue): hiked by 25 basis points to 4.85%, as expected, in a 6–3 vote.
- US midterms: Democrats won both the House and the Senate. CNBC reported the dollar index down about 0.3% on Wednesday as uncertainty cleared. EUR/USD made its high for the week at 1.12729 and GBP/USD reached 1.35029, a seven-week high.
- US data: ISM manufacturing came in at 55.5 and JOLTS at 7.52 million, both above forecasts. ADP showed 86,000 jobs, while ISM services was slightly below forecast at 54.5.
- Bank of England (Thu): raised Bank Rate to 4.00% in an 8–1 vote. Catherine Mann wanted a 50-basis-point rise. The Bank said it was not on a pre-set path.
- Payrolls (Fri): 165,000 jobs against a consensus of 55,000–65,000, with unemployment at 4.1% and September revised up to 60,000. The dollar had its biggest one-day gain since June.
What our levels did. EUR/USD’s bull case triggered first: it closed above the 1.1162 pivot on Monday and reached 1.12729 on Wednesday, beyond R1 but short of R2. Friday’s payrolls drop took it back to 1.11383, below both the pivot and the week’s open. GBP/USD broke R1 on Wednesday but stopped 23 pips short of R2, and Friday’s 121-pip fall left it at 1.33468, below the pivot. USD/JPY closed every day above its pivot, reached 158.77 above R1 on Tuesday, and closed at 158.44. The full levels for the next week are in the 9 November edition.
How to use this outlook
These are the levels and events we’re watching, not trade recommendations. Pivots and prior highs and lows are reference points where many traders place orders, which is why price often reacts there. They are not guarantees. Size every position from its stop, expect spreads to widen around each release, and remember that a stop can fill well past its price when markets gap.
Live trade ideas with entry, stop loss and take profit go out on our free Telegram channel. The previous edition is here. All editions are archived in the Weekly outlook section.
Frequently asked questions
What were the weekly pivot points for 2–6 November 2026?
Using the classic formula on the week to 30 October: EUR/USD pivot 1.11619 (R1 1.12196, S1 1.10973); GBP/USD pivot 1.33646 (R1 1.34569, S1 1.32956); USD/JPY pivot 157.515 (R1 158.380, S1 156.685). Prices are Dukascopy bid, New York close.
What time was the October US jobs report released in London?
13:30 London time on Friday 6 November. US clocks went back on 1 November, so US 8:30 releases returned to 13:30 London.
Did the Bank of England raise rates in November 2026?
Yes. On 5 November the Bank of England raised Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%, with an 8–1 vote; Catherine Mann voted for a 50-basis-point rise.
Sources
- Newsquawk: week in focus, 2–6 November 2026
- CapitalStreetFX: daily forex report, 31 October 2026
- InvestingLive: Fed holds at 3.75–4% in a 10–2 vote
- FXStreet: ECB recap, on hold amid tighter financial conditions
- Trading Economics: Bank of Japan holds at 1.25%
- InvestingLive: RBNZ leaves its cash rate unchanged
- StoneX: UK gilts reward a Budget that kept to the rules and kept the headroom
- Fox Business: September 2026 PCE inflation
- InvestingLive: RBA lifts the cash rate to 4.85% in a 6–3 vote
- CNBC: dollar dips with US midterm results in focus, 4 November 2026
- Trading Economics: Bank of England raises Bank Rate to 4%
- Fox Business: US jobs report, October 2026
- Euronext: dollar jumps after strong US payrolls report
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