Key takeaways
- EUR/USD hit a new 52-week low of 1.1113 on Wednesday, then closed the week near its high at 1.1238 (+0.34%). The weekly pivot is 1.1207.
- GBP/USD covered 235 pips, against a six-month average of 162, and closed at 1.3328 (+0.72%). UK jobs (Tue), CPI (Wed) and retail sales (Fri) make this sterling's week.
- USD/JPY moved only 140 pips, against an average week of 238, and closed at 158.02, just below its 158.17 pivot. Compression like this rarely lasts.
- The Fed is in its blackout before the 27–28 October meeting, so UK and eurozone data, and Friday's flash PMIs, set the tone.
Last week ended with the dollar on the back foot after a midweek scare. EUR/USD and GBP/USD both set their lows for the week on Wednesday, then recovered through Thursday and Friday to close near their highs. USD/JPY barely took part.
This week the US calendar is light and Fed officials are in their pre-meeting blackout ahead of the 27–28 October decision. The focus shifts to Britain, with jobs, inflation and retail sales all due, and to Friday’s flash PMIs across Europe and the US.
All prices below are Dukascopy bid prices, with daily candles closing at 17:00 New York time, the same candles most MT4 and MT5 brokers show. Pivot levels use the classic formula from last week’s high, low and close.
The week ahead: key events
Times are London time (BST). Consensus figures are from InvestingLive where shown. Release times can change, so check a live calendar before trading around them.
| Day | Time | Event | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 19 | 13:30 | Canada CPI (Sep) | m/m expected 0.2%, from −0.1% |
| Tue 20 | 07:00 | UK labour market | Unemployment 4.9% expected; average earnings 3.8% (prior 3.9%) |
| Tue 20 | 10:00 | German ZEW survey | |
| Tue 20 | 13:30 | US housing starts and permits | |
| Wed 21 | 07:00 | UK CPI (Sep) | 3.4% y/y expected, from 3.1%; core 2.8%, from 2.6% |
| Wed 21 | 17:30 | ECB President Lagarde speaks | |
| Wed 21 | 22:45 | New Zealand CPI (Q3) | |
| Thu 22 | 13:30 | US jobless claims | |
| Fri 23 | Early | Japan national CPI (Sep) | Core expected to rise to 2.1%, from 1.7% |
| Fri 23 | 07:00 | UK retail sales (Sep) | |
| Fri 23 | 08:15–09:30 | Eurozone, German and UK flash PMIs (Oct) | |
| Fri 23 | 14:45 | US flash PMIs (Oct) |
Looking further ahead: the Federal Reserve decides on 28 October, the UK Budget is on the same day, the ECB meets at the end of the month, and the Bank of England decides on 5 November. The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% in September.
EUR/USD
Show the data
| 2026-09-07 | O 1.16093 · H 1.16358 · L 1.16050 · C 1.16221 |
| 2026-09-08 | O 1.16220 · H 1.16359 · L 1.16079 · C 1.16240 |
| 2026-09-09 | O 1.16241 · H 1.16541 · L 1.16199 · C 1.16330 |
| 2026-09-10 | O 1.16325 · H 1.16418 · L 1.15921 · C 1.16115 |
| 2026-09-11 | O 1.16113 · H 1.16174 · L 1.15693 · C 1.15971 |
| 2026-09-14 | O 1.15944 · H 1.15972 · L 1.15230 · C 1.15481 |
| 2026-09-15 | O 1.15478 · H 1.15519 · L 1.15270 · C 1.15427 |
| 2026-09-16 | O 1.15423 · H 1.15565 · L 1.14607 · C 1.14647 |
| 2026-09-17 | O 1.14648 · H 1.14977 · L 1.14549 · C 1.14754 |
| 2026-09-18 | O 1.14751 · H 1.14918 · L 1.14547 · C 1.14830 |
| 2026-09-21 | O 1.14808 · H 1.14957 · L 1.14619 · C 1.14638 |
| 2026-09-22 | O 1.14638 · H 1.14781 · L 1.14293 · C 1.14478 |
| 2026-09-23 | O 1.14453 · H 1.14497 · L 1.13700 · C 1.13813 |
| 2026-09-24 | O 1.13812 · H 1.13991 · L 1.13590 · C 1.13798 |
| 2026-09-25 | O 1.13797 · H 1.14110 · L 1.13682 · C 1.13904 |
| 2026-09-28 | O 1.13811 · H 1.13912 · L 1.13531 · C 1.13703 |
| 2026-09-29 | O 1.13702 · H 1.13740 · L 1.13118 · C 1.13414 |
| 2026-09-30 | O 1.13411 · H 1.13803 · L 1.13222 · C 1.13290 |
| 2026-10-01 | O 1.13289 · H 1.13366 · L 1.12149 · C 1.12426 |
| 2026-10-02 | O 1.12353 · H 1.12853 · L 1.12207 · C 1.12516 |
| 2026-10-05 | O 1.12583 · H 1.12610 · L 1.11609 · C 1.12221 |
| 2026-10-06 | O 1.12209 · H 1.12767 · L 1.12028 · C 1.12584 |
| 2026-10-07 | O 1.12584 · H 1.12628 · L 1.11647 · C 1.11959 |
| 2026-10-08 | O 1.11948 · H 1.12268 · L 1.11718 · C 1.12095 |
| 2026-10-09 | O 1.12096 · H 1.12427 · L 1.11874 · C 1.11998 |
| 2026-10-12 | O 1.11858 · H 1.12171 · L 1.11524 · C 1.11544 |
| 2026-10-13 | O 1.11545 · H 1.12046 · L 1.11511 · C 1.11983 |
| 2026-10-14 | O 1.11983 · H 1.12114 · L 1.11128 · C 1.11556 |
| 2026-10-15 | O 1.11555 · H 1.12408 · L 1.11492 · C 1.12187 |
| 2026-10-16 | O 1.12187 · H 1.12694 · L 1.12080 · C 1.12381 |
| Level | |
|---|---|
| Last week | Open 1.11858 · High 1.12694 · Low 1.11128 · Close 1.12381 (+0.34%) |
| Weekly range | 157 pips (26-week average: 124) |
| Pivots | R2 1.13634 · R1 1.13007 · P 1.12068 · S1 1.11441 · S2 1.10502 |
| 20-day range | 1.11128 – 1.14957 |
| 52-week range | 1.11128 – 1.20822 |
| Average daily range, 20 days | 67 pips |
What happened. EUR/USD fell on Monday, recovered on Tuesday, then broke to a new 52-week low of 1.11128 on Wednesday, its widest day of the week at 99 pips. Buyers took over from there: Thursday added 63 pips and Friday made the week’s high at 1.12694 before closing at 1.12381. The weekly candle has a long lower tail and a close in the top fifth of its range, a classic sign of rejected lows. It also closed above the previous week’s close of 1.11998.
Bull scenario. Holding above the 1.1207 pivot keeps the rebound intact. A break of Friday’s 1.1269 high and the prior week’s 1.1277 opens R1 at 1.1301. Eurozone flash PMIs on Friday are the main domestic catalyst.
Bear scenario. A daily close back below 1.1207 would turn the rebound into a pause. S1 at 1.1144 is then the first support, and below it the 52-week low at 1.1113. A break there would mean new yearly lows and S2 at 1.1050.
What decides it. With little US data this week, sterling and euro data and any change in expectations for the 28 October Fed decision will drive the dollar. A 20-day average range of 67 pips is above EUR/USD’s 90-day norm of 56, so allow for wider stops than usual.
GBP/USD
Show the data
| 2026-09-07 | O 1.35099 · H 1.35474 · L 1.35051 · C 1.35401 |
| 2026-09-08 | O 1.35388 · H 1.35617 · L 1.35212 · C 1.35399 |
| 2026-09-09 | O 1.35399 · H 1.35677 · L 1.35301 · C 1.35463 |
| 2026-09-10 | O 1.35450 · H 1.35600 · L 1.34910 · C 1.35108 |
| 2026-09-11 | O 1.35078 · H 1.35345 · L 1.34801 · C 1.35177 |
| 2026-09-14 | O 1.35183 · H 1.35282 · L 1.34638 · C 1.34981 |
| 2026-09-15 | O 1.34980 · H 1.35046 · L 1.34639 · C 1.34769 |
| 2026-09-16 | O 1.34764 · H 1.34973 · L 1.33721 · C 1.33797 |
| 2026-09-17 | O 1.33741 · H 1.34059 · L 1.33361 · C 1.33583 |
| 2026-09-18 | O 1.33583 · H 1.33978 · L 1.33353 · C 1.33919 |
| 2026-09-21 | O 1.33834 · H 1.34000 · L 1.33647 · C 1.33658 |
| 2026-09-22 | O 1.33656 · H 1.33868 · L 1.33213 · C 1.33428 |
| 2026-09-23 | O 1.33422 · H 1.33466 · L 1.32234 · C 1.32381 |
| 2026-09-24 | O 1.32383 · H 1.32557 · L 1.32041 · C 1.32176 |
| 2026-09-25 | O 1.32177 · H 1.32635 · L 1.32088 · C 1.32421 |
| 2026-09-28 | O 1.32315 · H 1.32800 · L 1.32223 · C 1.32541 |
| 2026-09-29 | O 1.32539 · H 1.32576 · L 1.32020 · C 1.32308 |
| 2026-09-30 | O 1.32299 · H 1.33109 · L 1.32224 · C 1.32634 |
| 2026-10-01 | O 1.32603 · H 1.32725 · L 1.31805 · C 1.31912 |
| 2026-10-02 | O 1.31916 · H 1.32558 · L 1.31812 · C 1.32392 |
| 2026-10-05 | O 1.32355 · H 1.32497 · L 1.31900 · C 1.32214 |
| 2026-10-06 | O 1.32210 · H 1.32854 · L 1.32011 · C 1.32738 |
| 2026-10-07 | O 1.32738 · H 1.32758 · L 1.31934 · C 1.32128 |
| 2026-10-08 | O 1.32125 · H 1.32485 · L 1.31843 · C 1.32274 |
| 2026-10-09 | O 1.32273 · H 1.32499 · L 1.32055 · C 1.32317 |
| 2026-10-12 | O 1.32251 · H 1.32613 · L 1.32014 · C 1.32072 |
| 2026-10-13 | O 1.32073 · H 1.32590 · L 1.32024 · C 1.32544 |
| 2026-10-14 | O 1.32544 · H 1.32753 · L 1.31366 · C 1.31919 |
| 2026-10-15 | O 1.31918 · H 1.32780 · L 1.31835 · C 1.32742 |
| 2026-10-16 | O 1.32733 · H 1.33714 · L 1.32616 · C 1.33276 |
| Level | |
|---|---|
| Last week | Open 1.32251 · High 1.33714 · Low 1.31366 · Close 1.33276 (+0.72%) |
| Weekly range | 235 pips (26-week average: 162) |
| Pivots | R2 1.35133 · R1 1.34205 · P 1.32785 · S1 1.31857 · S2 1.30437 |
| 20-day range | 1.31366 – 1.34000 |
| 52-week range | 1.30098 – 1.38690 |
| Average daily range, 20 days | 75 pips |
What happened. Sterling followed the same path as the euro, with more force. Wednesday’s 139-pip day took it to 1.31366, the low of the last 20 trading days. Thursday and Friday then carried it 235 pips off that low, and Friday’s 1.33714 cleared the previous week’s high of 1.32854 by a wide margin before the close at 1.33276.
Bull scenario. Above the 1.3279 pivot the bias stays with buyers. Friday’s high at 1.3371 is the first test; above it, the 20-day high at 1.3400 and then R1 at 1.3421. A higher-than-expected UK CPI print on Wednesday (consensus 3.4%, up from 3.1%) is the most likely trigger for that.
Bear scenario. A close back below 1.3279 would put the breakout in doubt and bring the previous week’s range back into play, with S1 at 1.3186 and Wednesday’s low at 1.3137 below it. A soft labour report on Tuesday or a downside surprise in CPI are the obvious triggers.
What decides it. This is the busiest UK data week of the month, ahead of the Budget on 28 October and the Bank of England on 5 November. Expect the largest moves at 07:00 London on Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. A 75-pip average day means a stop under 25 pips is inside normal noise.
USD/JPY
Show the data
| 2026-09-07 | O 155.964 · H 156.279 · L 154.057 · C 154.343 |
| 2026-09-08 | O 154.339 · H 154.421 · L 152.889 · C 153.963 |
| 2026-09-09 | O 153.962 · H 153.982 · L 152.939 · C 153.504 |
| 2026-09-10 | O 153.447 · H 154.668 · L 153.281 · C 154.418 |
| 2026-09-11 | O 154.418 · H 154.615 · L 153.240 · C 153.499 |
| 2026-09-14 | O 153.315 · H 154.999 · L 153.308 · C 154.337 |
| 2026-09-15 | O 154.301 · H 155.237 · L 154.208 · C 155.070 |
| 2026-09-16 | O 155.060 · H 156.414 · L 154.837 · C 156.243 |
| 2026-09-17 | O 156.242 · H 156.314 · L 155.332 · C 155.954 |
| 2026-09-18 | O 155.954 · H 158.052 · L 155.870 · C 156.868 |
| 2026-09-21 | O 156.766 · H 157.529 · L 156.575 · C 157.328 |
| 2026-09-22 | O 157.330 · H 157.774 · L 156.822 · C 157.369 |
| 2026-09-23 | O 157.369 · H 158.400 · L 157.308 · C 158.301 |
| 2026-09-24 | O 158.300 · H 159.034 · L 157.796 · C 158.848 |
| 2026-09-25 | O 158.848 · H 158.908 · L 156.938 · C 157.227 |
| 2026-09-28 | O 157.216 · H 157.854 · L 156.506 · C 157.369 |
| 2026-09-29 | O 157.364 · H 157.714 · L 156.979 · C 157.277 |
| 2026-09-30 | O 157.277 · H 157.538 · L 156.377 · C 157.405 |
| 2026-10-01 | O 157.389 · H 158.454 · L 157.226 · C 158.080 |
| 2026-10-02 | O 158.080 · H 158.218 · L 156.944 · C 157.829 |
| 2026-10-05 | O 157.499 · H 158.297 · L 157.437 · C 157.893 |
| 2026-10-06 | O 157.893 · H 158.246 · L 157.769 · C 158.067 |
| 2026-10-07 | O 158.069 · H 158.509 · L 157.852 · C 158.060 |
| 2026-10-08 | O 158.056 · H 158.366 · L 157.518 · C 157.867 |
| 2026-10-09 | O 157.863 · H 158.430 · L 157.745 · C 158.275 |
| 2026-10-12 | O 158.082 · H 158.751 · L 158.066 · C 158.584 |
| 2026-10-13 | O 158.593 · H 158.655 · L 157.832 · C 158.318 |
| 2026-10-14 | O 158.319 · H 158.948 · L 158.046 · C 158.313 |
| 2026-10-15 | O 158.313 · H 158.334 · L 157.548 · C 157.981 |
| 2026-10-16 | O 157.981 · H 158.338 · L 157.693 · C 158.021 |
| Level | |
|---|---|
| Last week | Open 158.082 · High 158.948 · Low 157.548 · Close 158.021 (−0.16%) |
| Weekly range | 140 pips (26-week average: 238) |
| Pivots | R2 159.572 · R1 158.797 · P 158.172 · S1 157.397 · S2 156.772 |
| 20-day range | 156.377 – 159.034 |
| 52-week range | 149.378 – 163.989 |
| Average daily range, 20 days | 97 pips |
What happened. Very little. USD/JPY spent the week inside a 140-pip band, about 60% of an average week, and closed 25 pips lower at 158.021. The midweek dollar move that hit EUR/USD and GBP/USD barely registered here.
Bull scenario. A break above last week’s high of 158.95 and the 20-day high at 159.03 would open R2 at 159.57, and above it the round 160 level.
Bear scenario. Below last week’s low of 157.55, S1 at 157.40 is close underneath, then S2 at 156.77 and the 20-day low at 156.38. Friday’s Japanese CPI, with core inflation expected to rise to 2.1%, matters for expectations of a Bank of Japan hike later in the year.
What decides it. Ranges this tight usually end with a move, and the direction is unknown in advance. Rather than guessing, many traders wait for a daily close outside last week’s range (157.55–158.95) and trade in the direction of the break, with a stop back inside it.
How to use this outlook
These are the levels and events we’re watching, not trade recommendations. Pivots and prior highs and lows are reference points where many traders place orders, which is why price often reacts there. They are not guarantees. Size every position from its stop, and around high-impact releases expect spreads to widen and stops to slip.
Live trade ideas with entry, stop loss and take profit go out on our free Telegram channel. The next Weekly Outlook publishes on Monday 26 October; all editions are archived in the Weekly outlook section.
Sources
This article is for education and information, not investment advice. Trading forex and CFDs on margin is high risk and most retail accounts lose money. Read our risk warning.